NBA

There is a full slate of games for degenerates today. When did they start having 4 and 5 games on Christmas Day? I always remembered the doubleheader, that has been around since I was wearing a Painters Cap at the Old Garden. Anyway, I got a txt from Layup yesterday about the C's and LAL. I like the C's, don't love them, but I like them. You are getting 2.0 points with them. The Lakers still don't really play defense, and seem to be overrated by vegas (pretty horrible ATS record). However, this IS a statement game for LAL and it is at home. The Lakers will be up for this one, the C's get up for just about every game.

90 days and counting

By the time most of you read this, it will be December 18 (or later)....which means we have 90 days left until Vegas 2009.

To get you ready, here's a fun list of the dead casinos over the last 10 years. It's amazing that Layup and I (note, I said AND, not or) gambled in at least 4 of these casinos together.

AP Preseason 11-20

With Layla home sick I’m working from home today-working on my basketball research, that is. As a public servant, I can justify it by designating these research hours as being paid for directly by the Zahn brothers’ tax dollars. I can only assume that they find this research much more important than my regular work on finding cures for fatal neurological diseases.

Anyway, in an effort to wrap up my preseason analysis before the in-conference games begin, let’s look at 11-20. But first, some highlights since my last post:

Sunday’s UConn v Oklahoma score was 106-78!! Impressive. If there was an over, I think they might have covered. Two great quotes from OK’s coach: (1) "I told Geno (UConn’s coach) after the game that if they play like that and shoot like that they might win the men's championship." (2) "I don't think North Carolina and UConn are really close. Maybe North Carolina had a bad night and UConn had a good night, but there's a chasm between them." (UNC is the only other team to beat OK this season)

Rutgers has dropped to #15 after losses to Cal (who sat both centers) and Stanford (who lost their starting PG JJ Hones to a season ending knee injury in the first half-bad news for Stanford). Their biggest problem seems to be keeping Prince and Vaughn out of early foul trouble.

Games to watch: 12/3 UNC @ Oh St, 12/5 UMD @ Purdue, 12/7 Purdue @ ND,

11. Texas A&M (Big 12) – Big 12 defending champ is 7-0…currently at #5. I haven’t seen this team play, but I love the stats for senior Danielle Gant (5’11” G). Talk about well rounded--as a guard she’s the team’s high scorer (13.7 ppg), rebounder (8.2 rpg) and blocker, and comes in 2^nd with assists and steals. Takia Starts also deserves mention as a consistent scorer. This looks to be a stable tournament team-they have leaders and a ridiculously deep bench.

12. Vanderbilt (SEC) – Sweet 16 team from 08. Will rely on shooting %age after graduating star center. Counting on 6’ Tuomi and 6’1” Wirth to handle the inside (27.3 ppg comb)–may get them through the conference, but could prove troublesome against the NCAA field.

13. Texas (Big 12) – Currently 7-0 against meaningless teams. They have size, a seasoned point guard in Carla Cortijo (5’7”), and a scorer in Britt. Raven (G 6’). They also have a deep bench. But, I’d like to see them against Tenn and Ariz St in mid Dec before I get too excited about this team.

14. Oklahoma St (Big 12) – Lost to Duke to start the season. I still can’t figure how the tiny 5’5” Andrea Riley can score so darn many points (23.8 ppg)!

15. Virginia (ACC) – After an impressive win over Tenn, UVA has lost to ODU and Gonzaga. They could be good for some big upsets in the ACC, but I think they’ll struggle for consistency. One possible reason: 9 of the 11 Cavs with playing time this year have assist-TO ratios <= 1. Their PG-the only starter with a positive ratio-is only at 1.6.

16. Notre Dame (Big East) – Undefeated record (6-0) includes wins over Michigan St. and LSU. ND runs a quick, high-scoring offense supported by guards Ashley Barlow and Lindsay Schrader (27 ppg combined). They are not big by any measure and have a low-scoring center, but the bench is productive.

17. Arizona St (Pac-10) – Lost every game to Stanford and Cal in 2008 (0-5). Probably not a contender this year either.

18. Ohio St (Big Ten) – 6’4” center Jantel Lavender (21.7 ppg, 12.1 rpg) is the best player in the Big Ten. If the rest of the team can support her, they’ll have a chance at the conference.

19. Baylor (Big 12) – Currently over-ranked at #10. They’ll be lucky if they finish 4^th in the Big 12. Jhasmin Player (5’10” G 12 ppg) returned after missing end of 08 with torn ACL.

20. Auburn (SEC) – Now #14. With Tenn struggling, I like Auburn to top the SEC. They have a great core in DeWanna Bonner (6’4” F), Alli Smalley (5’8” G), Whitney Boddie (5’9” G--if she can keep her grades up), and Sherell Hobbs (5’11” G). Shooting 45% overall and 43% from 3 pt land this season.

Status

A couple of quick notes to use over the next week.

As stated earlier, Irvine is terrible as their kids begin to learn to play at a different level. They will improve over time, and hopefully we will be able to time this and make some money. But right now, take Utah St. giving the points at home.

Northridge- wow, what a disaster. Another loss last night and it wasn't even that close. It must be the uniforms. I'm not writing them off just yet, but jesus, can you at least win one game?

San Diego- Um, what is going on here. They have 8 players (all starters) returning from last year's run and they are just blowing.

San Fran- Very interesting team. Covered last nigth at USC. I believe that they are undervalued right now and will be a team to take during these next couple of weeks.

NBA schedule data is coming....

Nobody asked for it, you don't really want it, but I am going to provide it to you anyway!!! I wrote some code that downloaded all 30 NBA teams schedules, dumped them into a local SQL database. Yes, that means I have over 2700 games! Hopefully, soon I'll be able to auto produce my flow chart and I can post it here each month. Stay tuned....

The MAC for Tuesday night

Three games in the MAC tonight (well, there are 4, but one is underway):

Eastern Mich vs Cornell (-5.5): The Eagles are predicted to win the MAC West; Cornell is the class of the Ivy and just killed Loyola-IL. SHould be a good game, although this is in New York; Cornell should win, but I expect a close game. Take EMU and the points.

Ball St at Wisc-Milw (-6): Ball St is going to be good - 3 years from now. They are getting better (they had 6 wins last year), but won't go on the road and beat a middle-of-the-road Horizon team. Take the Panthers and give the points

Niagara at Buffalo (pick): An intra-city rivalry where home court doesn't matter too much. Niagara always seems to be near the top of the MAAC; Buffalo hasn't done much since 2003, when they lost a heartbreaker in the MAC Final (and still should have gone to the NCAAs anyway with an RPI of 45 that year). Anyway, Buffalo's coach may be in trouble; they are predicted to be last in the tough MAC East. Take the visting Eagles.

Making my stand tonight

Disastrous start to the basketball season. My good teams suck and my bad teams are playing well. Ugh. Well tonight is the night. Santa Barbara vs San Fran. Take the Gouchos. If they don't win, then I might be taking off a couple of weeks to regroup.