NBA

There is a full slate of games for degenerates today. When did they start having 4 and 5 games on Christmas Day? I always remembered the doubleheader, that has been around since I was wearing a Painters Cap at the Old Garden. Anyway, I got a txt from Layup yesterday about the C's and LAL. I like the C's, don't love them, but I like them. You are getting 2.0 points with them. The Lakers still don't really play defense, and seem to be overrated by vegas (pretty horrible ATS record). However, this IS a statement game for LAL and it is at home. The Lakers will be up for this one, the C's get up for just about every game.

90 days and counting

By the time most of you read this, it will be December 18 (or later)....which means we have 90 days left until Vegas 2009.

To get you ready, here's a fun list of the dead casinos over the last 10 years. It's amazing that Layup and I (note, I said AND, not or) gambled in at least 4 of these casinos together.

AP Preseason 11-20

With Layla home sick I’m working from home today-working on my basketball research, that is. As a public servant, I can justify it by designating these research hours as being paid for directly by the Zahn brothers’ tax dollars. I can only assume that they find this research much more important than my regular work on finding cures for fatal neurological diseases.

Anyway, in an effort to wrap up my preseason analysis before the in-conference games begin, let’s look at 11-20. But first, some highlights since my last post:

Sunday’s UConn v Oklahoma score was 106-78!! Impressive. If there was an over, I think they might have covered. Two great quotes from OK’s coach: (1) "I told Geno (UConn’s coach) after the game that if they play like that and shoot like that they might win the men's championship." (2) "I don't think North Carolina and UConn are really close. Maybe North Carolina had a bad night and UConn had a good night, but there's a chasm between them." (UNC is the only other team to beat OK this season)

Rutgers has dropped to #15 after losses to Cal (who sat both centers) and Stanford (who lost their starting PG JJ Hones to a season ending knee injury in the first half-bad news for Stanford). Their biggest problem seems to be keeping Prince and Vaughn out of early foul trouble.

Games to watch: 12/3 UNC @ Oh St, 12/5 UMD @ Purdue, 12/7 Purdue @ ND,

11. Texas A&M (Big 12) – Big 12 defending champ is 7-0…currently at #5. I haven’t seen this team play, but I love the stats for senior Danielle Gant (5’11” G). Talk about well rounded--as a guard she’s the team’s high scorer (13.7 ppg), rebounder (8.2 rpg) and blocker, and comes in 2^nd with assists and steals. Takia Starts also deserves mention as a consistent scorer. This looks to be a stable tournament team-they have leaders and a ridiculously deep bench.

12. Vanderbilt (SEC) – Sweet 16 team from 08. Will rely on shooting %age after graduating star center. Counting on 6’ Tuomi and 6’1” Wirth to handle the inside (27.3 ppg comb)–may get them through the conference, but could prove troublesome against the NCAA field.

13. Texas (Big 12) – Currently 7-0 against meaningless teams. They have size, a seasoned point guard in Carla Cortijo (5’7”), and a scorer in Britt. Raven (G 6’). They also have a deep bench. But, I’d like to see them against Tenn and Ariz St in mid Dec before I get too excited about this team.

14. Oklahoma St (Big 12) – Lost to Duke to start the season. I still can’t figure how the tiny 5’5” Andrea Riley can score so darn many points (23.8 ppg)!

15. Virginia (ACC) – After an impressive win over Tenn, UVA has lost to ODU and Gonzaga. They could be good for some big upsets in the ACC, but I think they’ll struggle for consistency. One possible reason: 9 of the 11 Cavs with playing time this year have assist-TO ratios <= 1. Their PG-the only starter with a positive ratio-is only at 1.6.

16. Notre Dame (Big East) – Undefeated record (6-0) includes wins over Michigan St. and LSU. ND runs a quick, high-scoring offense supported by guards Ashley Barlow and Lindsay Schrader (27 ppg combined). They are not big by any measure and have a low-scoring center, but the bench is productive.

17. Arizona St (Pac-10) – Lost every game to Stanford and Cal in 2008 (0-5). Probably not a contender this year either.

18. Ohio St (Big Ten) – 6’4” center Jantel Lavender (21.7 ppg, 12.1 rpg) is the best player in the Big Ten. If the rest of the team can support her, they’ll have a chance at the conference.

19. Baylor (Big 12) – Currently over-ranked at #10. They’ll be lucky if they finish 4^th in the Big 12. Jhasmin Player (5’10” G 12 ppg) returned after missing end of 08 with torn ACL.

20. Auburn (SEC) – Now #14. With Tenn struggling, I like Auburn to top the SEC. They have a great core in DeWanna Bonner (6’4” F), Alli Smalley (5’8” G), Whitney Boddie (5’9” G--if she can keep her grades up), and Sherell Hobbs (5’11” G). Shooting 45% overall and 43% from 3 pt land this season.

Status

A couple of quick notes to use over the next week.

As stated earlier, Irvine is terrible as their kids begin to learn to play at a different level. They will improve over time, and hopefully we will be able to time this and make some money. But right now, take Utah St. giving the points at home.

Northridge- wow, what a disaster. Another loss last night and it wasn't even that close. It must be the uniforms. I'm not writing them off just yet, but jesus, can you at least win one game?

San Diego- Um, what is going on here. They have 8 players (all starters) returning from last year's run and they are just blowing.

San Fran- Very interesting team. Covered last nigth at USC. I believe that they are undervalued right now and will be a team to take during these next couple of weeks.

NBA schedule data is coming....

Nobody asked for it, you don't really want it, but I am going to provide it to you anyway!!! I wrote some code that downloaded all 30 NBA teams schedules, dumped them into a local SQL database. Yes, that means I have over 2700 games! Hopefully, soon I'll be able to auto produce my flow chart and I can post it here each month. Stay tuned....

The MAC for Tuesday night

Three games in the MAC tonight (well, there are 4, but one is underway):

Eastern Mich vs Cornell (-5.5): The Eagles are predicted to win the MAC West; Cornell is the class of the Ivy and just killed Loyola-IL. SHould be a good game, although this is in New York; Cornell should win, but I expect a close game. Take EMU and the points.

Ball St at Wisc-Milw (-6): Ball St is going to be good - 3 years from now. They are getting better (they had 6 wins last year), but won't go on the road and beat a middle-of-the-road Horizon team. Take the Panthers and give the points

Niagara at Buffalo (pick): An intra-city rivalry where home court doesn't matter too much. Niagara always seems to be near the top of the MAAC; Buffalo hasn't done much since 2003, when they lost a heartbreaker in the MAC Final (and still should have gone to the NCAAs anyway with an RPI of 45 that year). Anyway, Buffalo's coach may be in trouble; they are predicted to be last in the tough MAC East. Take the visting Eagles.

Making my stand tonight

Disastrous start to the basketball season. My good teams suck and my bad teams are playing well. Ugh. Well tonight is the night. Santa Barbara vs San Fran. Take the Gouchos. If they don't win, then I might be taking off a couple of weeks to regroup.

What I learned today

1. BYU is not that good. If you can't win by 20 at home against Poly, you suck.
2. Long Beach will be a Big West contender.
3. Wisconsin-Milwaukee might win, but they do not cover.
4. Pepperdine blows.

Quick look at the AP Preseason Top 10 (Women's)

I want to start with a look at the preseason top 10 as an intro to the teams and their stars.  Depending on where we go with this (see previous post) I can continue with the rest of the top 25 and then focus on match-ups and injury reports for the remainder of the season.  Hard to do much handicapping without lines, but maybe I'll see how good I can get at setting my own (and will probably make a complete fool of myself in the process...).  For all the March Madness trips I've made, I've never bet on the women's tournament before.  If I can keep up with this through the entire season, March 21 will be a busy day for me!

Things to watch in 2009: Pat Summitt goes for her 1000^th win-more than any coach (men or women) in NCAA history.  She’s at 983 to start the season.  She should get there, but it may not be easy-Tenn lost all 5 starters from the 2008 championship team and has a difficult non-conference schedule coming into Jan.

Early Games To Watch: Nov 21: Rutgers at California, Arizona St at Oklahoma, UVA at ODU, Nov 22: Louisville at Xavier, Nov 23: Rutgers at Stanford, Ohio St at Auburn, Nov 26: Marist at Oklahoma, Nov 30: Oklahoma at UConn.

And now, on to the top 10:

1. UConn (Big East) – Unanimous preseason #1 and fave to win it all.  Missed a chance at the champ in 08 after losing to Stanford in semis.  High scoring offense that plays like the boys.  3 top returns, Tina Charles 6’4” (C), Renee Montgomery (G), and Maya Moore (F-considered the best player in the league) combined for 46.1 ppg in 08.  UConn is counting heavily on 3 freshman to fill crucial roles, one of which is now out for 3 weeks with mono (Buck-bkup C).  Big off-season story: their top recruit (#1 in country) backed out to play vollyball at UDelaware???

2. Stanford (Pac-10) – This team has height and depth-the makings of a great tournament team.  Despite losing Candice Wiggins, last season’s Wade Trophy winner, many stars remain.  Talented, but injury prone Jayne Appel (6’4” F/C) and Kayla Pedersen (6’4” F) combined for 27.6 ppg and 17.2 rpg last season.  Stanford dropped in the rankings following an early (and big) loss to Baylor due to a horrible shooting performance.  Possible 1-seed potential.

3. Maryland (ACC) – The good: Kristi Tolliver and Jay’s personal favorite Marissa Coleman (33.2 ppg comb.) return from the 06 Champ team. The bad: Crystal Langhorn and Laura Harper-powerhouses in the paint-are gone.  UMD will need it's rookies to step in quickly at C.  Luckily, 6’4” freshman Lynetta Kizer showed promise with a double-double in an opening season loss to TCU.  6’6” frosh Yemi Oyefuwa should chip in at backup.  But, as the loss to TCU shows, UMD will need consistent performances from Tolliver and Coleman this year to get far in the tourney.  Watch early Dec matchups against Pittsburgh and ODU to see how far this team will go.

4. Oklahoma (Big 12) – Preseason first team center Courtney Paris (6’4”) and twin sis Ashley (6’3” F) headline the Sooner roster this season.  OK has size and depth in the frontcourt.  Their young guards will need to learn to score, but they also have height on their side.  The Big 12 is wide open this year, so don’t consider this team a favorite--yet.  Watch for a 2-1 record this week in killer non-conference games against Arizona St, Marist, and UConn to determine if this team is a true contender.

5. Rutgers (Big East) – Lost 2 key players to the WNBA but returns preseason first team Epiphanny Prince (G-what a great name!) and Kia Vaughn (6’4” C).  Will rely on 4 freshmen to fill key roles.  Look for top recruits Nikki Speed and April Sykes to add depth to the rotation.  A quick transition here will help immensely and could pave the way for a championship run in 2010.  Will they pull off a win tonight against an injury plagued Cal??  Yes.

6. UNC (ACC) – UNC is a fast paced team, leading the nation in scoring in '08 with 86 ppg.  The Tar Heels will need that speed to compensate for their lack in size.  After losing the heart of its roster to graduation, UNC returns two stars, guard Cetera DeGraffenreid (as in et Cetera??) and Rashanda McCants (F) who scored 27 against ranked Xavier on Wed.  It’s hard to say how far this lineup will get them.

7. Tennessee (SEC) – The Lady Vols won in both 07 and 08, but here’s the problem: all 5 starters are gone.  The 3 returning rotation players all averaged single digits in 08.  To be blunt, this team lacks a star.  Freshman Glory Johnson (F) is off to a good start with 30 points and 18 rebounds in her first 2 games.  But, Monday night’s loss to UVA shows this may be a long season-they were outscored in the paint by 14 points.  Too bad their non-conference schedule doesn’t get any easier.

8. Duke (ACC) – It pains me to have to talk about this program so I’ll be brief.  I felt like a traitor even visiting their website…  Like the men, the lady Blue Devils rely heavily on high-class recruiting to seamlessly fill graduation gaps.  They are huge--they have 7 players over 6’ including star center Chante Black (6’5”) who scored a career-high 28 last week against #14 OK State.  Because Duke is Duke, they will find a way to win the ACC.

9. Cal (Pac-10) – Cal has some early problems at center: starter Devanei Hampton and backup Rama N’diaye are both having problems with their surgically repaired knees.  Will either start tonight against Rutgers?  Count on a long season if their leading scorer Ashley Walker (6’1” F) is asked to fill this role long term.

10. Louisville (Big East) – I can’t quite figure why this team's in the top-10 other than the fact that they have top rated Angel McCoughtry (F).  But, she has very little support.  Starting center Keshia Hines has scored 6 total points in 2 big wins against crap-ass opponents.  Louisville also lost their starting point guard and is looking for young talent to fill that role.  So far, the two starting guards have combined for 7 and 9 points in the first 2 games.  Yuck.  Of course they’ll make the tournament, but I don’t have high hopes for this team overall.

Women's Hoops - What's The Point?

I was gearing up to publish my first post today on the women (I may still follow through with that later), but I ran into a major roadblock last night while looking up some lines for ncaa-w.  The problem: there are no lines.  From what I could tell, none of the major betting sites carry women's lines.  Clearly, I did not know this.  To be honest, I'm not even sure if Vegas produces them for the regular season.  I doubt they get much action.  Do any of you know more about this?  Wiz, perhaps?

So...to conclude...if we can't get reg season odds, does it still make sense to look at it so closely? Where's the value?

Quick Questions

Looking at today's spreads, there are a couple of games that I find to have interesting lines.

1. UC Davis (+11) at Arkansas
I know that Arkansas doesn't play much defense, but can UC Davis hang with them? Layup, any thoughts?

2. Michigan (+10) at UCLA (@ MSG, Coaches vs Cancer)
I thought that UCLA was pretty good and Michigan was pretty bad, so this looks like a trap game to me. I know that UCLA squeaked by Miami (OH), was that just a fluke?

Also, I've signed myself up for the Patriot League, but I haven't seen any lines for any of the games. Am I missing something? American played Oklahoma the other day and I couldn't find a line!

The good news is that I've found a friend who has AU season tickets and who has offered to give me his extras. I can't wait for Patriot League action to begin! Lehigh! Colgate! Army! Feel the power!

OK, all you Obama supporters....

I had Pittsburgh -5 this weekend. I got screwed.

Where is my bailout? Mr. Frank/ Sen. Dodd? Hello? I want restitution!

Big West Conference

This is my first of two conferences that I will focus on. The WCC will be my second one. My plan is to make it to at least 7 games during the season. With Irvine, Fullerton, and Long Beach within a short drive and Northridge, Riverside, and Santa Barbara just a little further, I should be able to see a lot of action.

Pre-season Predictions:

1. Santa Barbara
2. Northridge
3. Pacific
4. Irvine
5. Long Beach St.
6. Davis
7. Fullerton
8. Riverside
9. Cal Poly

Interesting weekend in the Big West. UC Davis was competitive and actually won a game and might surprise some teams. Long Beach also kept it close against Wisconsin and BYU. Some quick comments on some of the teams.

Pacific is in trouble. The odds out favorite before the season began they are now just trying to hang on to a winning season. Their starting PG, Center, and back up PG were suspended for the year for something that I'm still trying to find out. They held tough on the road against Cal, and I think we can get some good value on them once they stop playing the heavy weights. Bet against them when playing a higher level conference, but go with them when playing equal to lessor conference.

Irvine: Lost their top two scorers from last year who accounted for 40% of their points. No one is ready to step into that role, but they are hoping that two all state juco transfers (Atkinson and Moore) will be able to step in immediately and start for them. With that, they will focus in on defense and slowing down the tempo. Seven new guys with no D-1 experience. They are very tough at home with a .770 winning percentage. Take the under and the points when Irvine is playing at home. Beat against them early in the season on the road, but with them late in the season.


Cal State Northridge: Changed uniforms and they look like the old White sox uni's. Not too sure what this means. They have a Tulsa PG that is ineligible until December. Head coach is in his final year. Travels 6,000 miles during a 6 game road trip in December. Still doing some research.

Santa Barbara: My pick to win. Toughest arena in the league and returning several starters. Was my lock of the night tonight, but I was running late to get home.

Cal Poly and Riverside: Bet as much as you can against them!!!

Dedicated Vegas2K9 planning blog

As I am starting to hear about the planning and homework that is getting assigned (conference research!!) I thought it might make sense to make a dedicated site for all things Vegas 2009. Consider this an attempt at that. Feel free to invite anyone else who is going to be part of the march trip to be an author on this blog.

I would also like to talk about the conference assignment homework. Should we focus on small conferences that are only likely to send one team to the tourney? Is this valuable? Or is it better to take a conference like CUSA or BigEast that will send multiple. I understand we will all (most) follow ACC pretty closely, but I am wondering the strategy of looking at the tiny conferences. Thoughts?