Quick look at the AP Preseason Top 10 (Women's)

I want to start with a look at the preseason top 10 as an intro to the teams and their stars.  Depending on where we go with this (see previous post) I can continue with the rest of the top 25 and then focus on match-ups and injury reports for the remainder of the season.  Hard to do much handicapping without lines, but maybe I'll see how good I can get at setting my own (and will probably make a complete fool of myself in the process...).  For all the March Madness trips I've made, I've never bet on the women's tournament before.  If I can keep up with this through the entire season, March 21 will be a busy day for me!

Things to watch in 2009: Pat Summitt goes for her 1000^th win-more than any coach (men or women) in NCAA history.  She’s at 983 to start the season.  She should get there, but it may not be easy-Tenn lost all 5 starters from the 2008 championship team and has a difficult non-conference schedule coming into Jan.

Early Games To Watch: Nov 21: Rutgers at California, Arizona St at Oklahoma, UVA at ODU, Nov 22: Louisville at Xavier, Nov 23: Rutgers at Stanford, Ohio St at Auburn, Nov 26: Marist at Oklahoma, Nov 30: Oklahoma at UConn.

And now, on to the top 10:

1. UConn (Big East) – Unanimous preseason #1 and fave to win it all.  Missed a chance at the champ in 08 after losing to Stanford in semis.  High scoring offense that plays like the boys.  3 top returns, Tina Charles 6’4” (C), Renee Montgomery (G), and Maya Moore (F-considered the best player in the league) combined for 46.1 ppg in 08.  UConn is counting heavily on 3 freshman to fill crucial roles, one of which is now out for 3 weeks with mono (Buck-bkup C).  Big off-season story: their top recruit (#1 in country) backed out to play vollyball at UDelaware???

2. Stanford (Pac-10) – This team has height and depth-the makings of a great tournament team.  Despite losing Candice Wiggins, last season’s Wade Trophy winner, many stars remain.  Talented, but injury prone Jayne Appel (6’4” F/C) and Kayla Pedersen (6’4” F) combined for 27.6 ppg and 17.2 rpg last season.  Stanford dropped in the rankings following an early (and big) loss to Baylor due to a horrible shooting performance.  Possible 1-seed potential.

3. Maryland (ACC) – The good: Kristi Tolliver and Jay’s personal favorite Marissa Coleman (33.2 ppg comb.) return from the 06 Champ team. The bad: Crystal Langhorn and Laura Harper-powerhouses in the paint-are gone.  UMD will need it's rookies to step in quickly at C.  Luckily, 6’4” freshman Lynetta Kizer showed promise with a double-double in an opening season loss to TCU.  6’6” frosh Yemi Oyefuwa should chip in at backup.  But, as the loss to TCU shows, UMD will need consistent performances from Tolliver and Coleman this year to get far in the tourney.  Watch early Dec matchups against Pittsburgh and ODU to see how far this team will go.

4. Oklahoma (Big 12) – Preseason first team center Courtney Paris (6’4”) and twin sis Ashley (6’3” F) headline the Sooner roster this season.  OK has size and depth in the frontcourt.  Their young guards will need to learn to score, but they also have height on their side.  The Big 12 is wide open this year, so don’t consider this team a favorite--yet.  Watch for a 2-1 record this week in killer non-conference games against Arizona St, Marist, and UConn to determine if this team is a true contender.

5. Rutgers (Big East) – Lost 2 key players to the WNBA but returns preseason first team Epiphanny Prince (G-what a great name!) and Kia Vaughn (6’4” C).  Will rely on 4 freshmen to fill key roles.  Look for top recruits Nikki Speed and April Sykes to add depth to the rotation.  A quick transition here will help immensely and could pave the way for a championship run in 2010.  Will they pull off a win tonight against an injury plagued Cal??  Yes.

6. UNC (ACC) – UNC is a fast paced team, leading the nation in scoring in '08 with 86 ppg.  The Tar Heels will need that speed to compensate for their lack in size.  After losing the heart of its roster to graduation, UNC returns two stars, guard Cetera DeGraffenreid (as in et Cetera??) and Rashanda McCants (F) who scored 27 against ranked Xavier on Wed.  It’s hard to say how far this lineup will get them.

7. Tennessee (SEC) – The Lady Vols won in both 07 and 08, but here’s the problem: all 5 starters are gone.  The 3 returning rotation players all averaged single digits in 08.  To be blunt, this team lacks a star.  Freshman Glory Johnson (F) is off to a good start with 30 points and 18 rebounds in her first 2 games.  But, Monday night’s loss to UVA shows this may be a long season-they were outscored in the paint by 14 points.  Too bad their non-conference schedule doesn’t get any easier.

8. Duke (ACC) – It pains me to have to talk about this program so I’ll be brief.  I felt like a traitor even visiting their website…  Like the men, the lady Blue Devils rely heavily on high-class recruiting to seamlessly fill graduation gaps.  They are huge--they have 7 players over 6’ including star center Chante Black (6’5”) who scored a career-high 28 last week against #14 OK State.  Because Duke is Duke, they will find a way to win the ACC.

9. Cal (Pac-10) – Cal has some early problems at center: starter Devanei Hampton and backup Rama N’diaye are both having problems with their surgically repaired knees.  Will either start tonight against Rutgers?  Count on a long season if their leading scorer Ashley Walker (6’1” F) is asked to fill this role long term.

10. Louisville (Big East) – I can’t quite figure why this team's in the top-10 other than the fact that they have top rated Angel McCoughtry (F).  But, she has very little support.  Starting center Keshia Hines has scored 6 total points in 2 big wins against crap-ass opponents.  Louisville also lost their starting point guard and is looking for young talent to fill that role.  So far, the two starting guards have combined for 7 and 9 points in the first 2 games.  Yuck.  Of course they’ll make the tournament, but I don’t have high hopes for this team overall.